J.P. Morgan Asset Management Foresees Oil Price Decline in Second Half, Maintains Overweight Stance on Equities

Deep News
May 12

J.P. Morgan Asset Management stated on Tuesday that it anticipates Brent crude oil prices will retreat to more typical levels in the third and fourth quarters. The global economy is expected to withstand the energy shock and achieve steady growth, which provides a foundation for the firm to maintain its "risk-on" investment stance, including an overweight position in equities, over the next 12-18 months. In a commentary, Sheng Nan, the firm's Chief Portfolio Manager, noted that vulnerability to rising energy prices varies across different regions of the global economy. The U.S. economy is transitioning from above-trend growth to growth near or slightly above trend, with limited pass-through of high oil prices to core inflation. Both consumers and businesses are likely to view the surge in energy prices as a temporary phenomenon, which should help avert a broader economic slowdown. Regarding investment strategy, she indicated a continued moderate "risk-on" stance, including an overweight in equities, and reiterated a preference for the technology and communication services sectors. In fixed income, the strategy leans toward shorter durations as the yield curve steepens; credit allocations are neutral, reflecting an asymmetric distribution of returns.

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