The World Meteorological Organization announced on the 3rd that an El Nino event has been confirmed, with expectations it will intensify into a super El Nino within months, significantly altering global rainfall and temperature patterns and raising the risk of extreme weather events.
According to the bulletin, driven by unusually warm ocean conditions in the tropical Pacific, the strength of this El Nino is likely to peak at the end of this year, with the probability of the event persisting through February 2027 rated as "extremely high, near 100%."
"A super El Nino is forming right before our eyes," UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres warned in the report. "Sea surface temperatures continue to rise, and temperatures keep climbing. The world has entered the extreme weather danger zone."
On July 28, in Lebak Regency, Banten Province, Indonesia, a village site previously submerged by a reservoir re-emerged (drone photo). Due to the El Nino phenomenon, many parts of Indonesia have experienced longer dry seasons this year, making conditions drier than in previous years.
The World Meteorological Organization is urging countries to closely monitor developments and take timely response measures. "We are already witnessing destruction and disaster from droughts and floods, and as El Nino strengthens, its impacts are expected to worsen," said WMO Secretary-General Celeste Saulo. "This El Nino is highly unusual, requiring exceptional preparedness and response."
El Nino is a natural climate phenomenon characterized by elevated sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific. It typically occurs every 2 to 7 years and lasts approximately 9 to 12 months, with its effects on global temperatures most pronounced in the year following its onset.
The World Meteorological Organization stated that a super El Nino event increases the likelihood of significant changes in rainfall, temperatures, and atmospheric circulation across many parts of the globe. However, it is important to note that the strength of El Nino alone does not determine how severe impacts will be in any single country or region. Impacts vary by location and season and may be modulated by other climate drivers.