Escalating tensions between the U.S. and Iran have revived concerns about prolonged disruptions to energy shipments through the Strait of Hormuz, pushing hedge fund bullishness on Brent crude to levels not seen since May.
Data from ICE Futures Europe, covering options and futures activity, shows that as of the week ending September 1st, money managers expanded their net long positions in Brent crude by 37,837 contracts to 261,435 — the strongest reading in more than three months.
Separately, figures from the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) indicate that net bullish bets on crude oil have also climbed to their highest point since June.
Oil prices have resumed their upward trajectory this week. Continued U.S. airstrikes, met with Iranian retaliatory attacks on American military bases, have made the resumption of shipping through the world's most critical energy artery increasingly difficult.
At the time of writing, Brent futures were up 0.35% on Friday, bringing weekly gains to 8.8%, trading at $95.85 per barrel — surpassing the previous cyclical high set on July 24th.
The latest escalation has also prompted Iran to strike vessels passing through the Strait of Hormuz, breaking a period of relative calm during which maritime traffic in the waterway had been gradually recovering.
With Tehran launching multiple missile barrages toward Jordan, Kuwait, and Bahrain, and Israel warning of strikes on civilian infrastructure should it come under attack from the Iranian capital, the risk of the region slipping back into a cycle of military escalation continues to mount.
Refined products like diesel have seen even sharper price surges, as simultaneous conflicts in the Middle East and Ukraine further squeeze fuel supply. Net long positioning in diesel has reached its highest level since March, while U.S. retail diesel prices hit a record $5.85 per gallon on Thursday.
Gasoline net long positioning has also jumped to 89,263 contracts, the loftiest level since last December. On a seasonal basis, traders have never been this bullish on gasoline at this point in the year, given that prices are currently hovering near their highest historical levels for September.