A recent report from 湘财证券 highlights that diamond-based heat-spreading materials, a key upgrade path for thermal management in AI chip packaging, are at a pivotal inflection point transitioning from research to industrial application. The sector combines high technical barriers with significant growth potential, making it a promising incremental track within semiconductor packaging materials.
The firm recommends focusing on two primary investment themes: the manufacturing of CVD diamond materials and heat sink substrates, and the processing and packaging associated with diamond-copper composite materials. However, it also cautions that materials positioned closer to the chip undergo longer validation cycles, meaning short-term revenue growth may lag market expectations. Investors should distinguish between technological breakthroughs and the realization of batch orders, strategically positioning in companies with clear technical roadmaps and established first-mover advantages to capitalize on early-stage expectation gaps. The firm maintains a positive outlook on the diamond heat-spreading material supply chain and reiterates an "Overweight" rating for the machinery sector.
According to the report, the performance breakthrough and preparation processes are advancing in parallel. Pure diamond exhibits a thermal conductivity exceeding 2000 W/(m·K), while diamond-copper composites reach 600-900 W/(m·K), significantly outperforming pure copper and aluminum, thereby greatly enhancing heat diffusion efficiency near the chip. Although pure diamond is brittle and difficult to machine, compositing it with copper retains high thermal conductivity while offering good machinability for precision applications. In terms of preparation, the CVD method enables heteroepitaxial growth of carbon atoms under low pressure to form polycrystalline films, allowing large-area, thickness-controlled deposition, but involves high equipment investment and limited deposition rates. Conversely, the HPHT method uses a cubic press to simulate extreme conditions, growing single-crystal diamonds with mature, stable output, yet chamber volume limits size scalability, and costs escalate exponentially with size. HPHT single crystals are suited for high-end semiconductor substrates, while CVD polycrystalline materials are ideal for batch-produced heat spreaders. Both technologies will coexist long-term, with downstream selection based on cost, size, and performance trade-offs.
Global leaders are accelerating their布局, signaling that the industrial inflection point has arrived. Overseas pioneers are making the first moves, with industrial progress noticeably speeding up. In February 2026, Nvidia announced that its Vera Rubin GPU would fully adopt diamond-composite materials with liquid cooling, and by July, Jensen Huang confirmed production had begun, with a single chip power draw of 2300W. Meanwhile, Akash Systems has delivered H200 servers featuring diamond-based cooling, achieving a 15%-22% efficiency improvement. Domestically, leveraging its advantage in synthetic diamond output, leading Chinese companies are collectively pivoting towards semiconductor heat dissipation. 黄河旋风's 8-inch heat sink production line has an annual capacity of 20,000 units; 四方达's heat spreaders have passed overseas tests and are in small-batch supply; 力量钻石's heat sink project has commenced production; 沃尔德 has developed a 12-inch diamond heat sink currently in testing; and 国机精工's CVD products are undergoing validation with leading customers, generating over 10 million yuan in revenue in 2025.
Regarding market size projections and technology evolution, in the short term, diamond-copper composite materials are the most mature and cost-effective, applied to IHS heat spreader lids. This involves only material substitution, is highly compatible with existing processes, and promises the fastest volume ramp-up. In the medium to long term, the trend of diamond substrates replacing ceramic substrates is clear, but bottlenecks such as slow CVD growth, grain boundary scattering, bonding interface compatibility, and difficulties in producing large-size single crystals mean a lengthy adoption period. The report estimates the global diamond heat-spreading material market at approximately 1.6 billion yuan in 2026, growing to 55.9 billion yuan by 2030. Risks include potential underperformance in production ramp-up, stringent material validation near the chip leading to revenue growth lagging behind conceptual hype, and the possibility that breakthroughs in copper alloys or graphene could delay penetration if they achieve better cost performance.
The investment case is characterized by high barriers, high elasticity, and slow validation. Process expertise creates moats, demand driven by AI expansion provides elasticity, and validation cycles build time-based advantages for early movers.
Key risks include: 1) Engineering and production ramp-up falling short of expectations; 2) Prolonged customer validation and adoption cycles; 3) Technological route substitution and cross-industry competition; 4) Fluctuations in downstream demand; 5) Intensifying industry competition.