As September begins, China's corn market enters a critical transition period between old and new crop supplies, with prices displaying clear phase-based divergence. Supply-demand dynamics remain relatively balanced in the first half of the month, keeping prices largely stable with only minor regional variations. However, starting in the latter half, the concentrated arrival of new North China corn will release significant supply pressure, and with weak downstream demand providing little support, prices are expected to enter a downward channel. Additionally, the superior quality of new crop corn will further erode the market value of existing old crop inventories.
By August 31, the national average corn price stood at 2,240.379 yuan per ton, down approximately 10 yuan per ton from the start of August. Throughout August, the domestic spot corn market trended weaker, with traders continuing to offload old crop stocks while feed and deep-processing enterprises maintained just-in-time purchasing strategies with cautious sentiment. Regional divergence was evident: North China saw prices under pressure, while Northeast China, with limited high-quality supply, saw traders adopting a firm, hold-out mentality. Mid-to-late August brought the seasonal arrival of spring corn in North China, further dampening market sentiment and pulling the monthly price center slightly lower.
First Half of September: Stability Prevails with Narrow Regional Variations
The ongoing arrival of spring corn is effectively supplementing regional supply and alleviating temporary tightness in certain areas. However, pronounced regional divergence persists. In North China, prices continue to trend weak — ahead of new crop listings, traders show a strong willingness to destock, and with previous surplus grain not fully absorbed, regional supply remains ample, causing prices to ease slightly under pressure. In contrast, the Northeast demonstrates stronger price resilience. The market there circulates primarily high-quality old crop corn, with traders holding firm and showing reluctance to sell. Supported by rigid procurement demand, Northeast prices remain solid, effectively offsetting weakness in North China and keeping the national average stable.
Downstream enterprises continue to replenish inventory on an as-needed basis, maintaining a steady procurement pace with no concentrated stockpiling activity. This fails to generate meaningful upward momentum for grain prices, resulting in a subdued trading atmosphere and mostly stable-to-slightly-fluctuating prices across most regions.
Second Half of September: New Crop Arrival Triggers Old Crop Decline
From mid-to-late September onward, as summer corn in North China begins hitting the market, supply pressure in producing regions will intensify while demand remains weak. The convergence of these bearish factors is expected to drive the national corn price into a downtrend. North China, as the primary new crop supply region, will see large-scale harvesting and peak listings during this period, shifting the overall national supply from ample to surplus. With abundant grain availability, traders face mounting pressure to offload inventory, pulling spot prices progressively lower.
Substitute feed ingredients are also playing a role in suppressing corn demand. Ample supplies of wheat, rice, and sorghum offer competitive pricing advantages, continuously diverting feed demand away from corn. Most large-scale feed enterprises are purchasing strictly on demand while tightly controlling raw material costs, maintaining low inventory levels through a just-in-time procurement model with no initiative to build stocks. Consequently, rigid corn consumption shows little prospect of improvement. Meanwhile, the corn deep-processing sector operates at stable but constrained margins, with cautious raw material procurement. Overall, downstream demand offers no supportive catalyst and cannot underpin grain prices.
Quality dynamics further disadvantage old crop corn. While this year's spring corn in North China shows good grain quality overall, old crop inventories held in storage have deteriorated — with higher moisture content, reduced quality, and some lots showing mold, elevated impurities, or toxin exceedances. In a market environment characterized by fresh new crop supply and ample availability, old crop corn faces growing circulation difficulties and continuously diminishing market value, making destocking progressively more challenging.
September is expected to see corn prices in some markets decline by 20–40 yuan per ton. The monthly average is projected to fall to approximately 2,225 yuan per ton, with the average price range running between 2,200–2,240 yuan per ton. Market participants should closely monitor the pace of new corn listings and quality developments, as these factors will be pivotal to the pace and magnitude of the anticipated adjustment.