U.S. military operations, combining air-sea cover and mine-clearing efforts, have successfully weakened Iran's grip on the Strait of Hormuz. With the shipping lane reopening and crude transit volumes rebounding, Washington now holds stronger cards in negotiations with Tehran, which has begun to show signs of compromise.
Since the conflict erupted this February, the Strait of Hormuz has been Iran's most potent deterrent. Yet, according to the latest disclosures from U.S. officials, sustained operations over the past two months have progressively dismantled Iran's control over this vital global energy artery. The confrontation, initially aimed at crippling Iran's missile capabilities and residual nuclear program, has evolved into a prolonged struggle centered on the world's most critical energy chokepoint.
U.S. officials view the reversal in the strait as a watershed moment, one that could ease global economic strains and secure more favorable terms for Washington in any future talks with Iran. In a phone interview with Axios on Thursday, Trump stated bluntly: "The waterway is open. Iran's response has been very weak; they don't want our retaliation. That's the core of this entire contest, and the rest is irrelevant."
At the war's onset, the Strait of Hormuz remained open, with Brent crude steady near $72 per barrel. However, according to Israeli officials, then-commander of Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps Navy, Alireza Tangsiri, subsequently ordered the waterway closed. Within the first 72 hours of the conflict, Iran declared the strait shut and threatened to attack any tanker attempting passage. Deeper intelligence revealed that Tangsiri also directed the placement of mines in the international shipping lane (TSS), triggering a sharp escalation. Three weeks later, Tangsiri was killed in an Israeli airstrike on Bandar Abbas.
Commercial shipping ground to a halt under the twin threats of attacks and mines. Brent crude prices surged in response, peaking at $126 per barrel. Facing domestic economic pressure from rising oil prices, the Trump administration signed a memorandum of understanding (MOU) in April to de-escalate, but the deal quickly collapsed as the strait never truly reopened. After diplomatic efforts failed, U.S. forces shifted to unilateral action to forcibly restore transit.
The plan reportedly involved four key components: U.S. task forces partnering with the UAE to provide air-sea cover for vessels using the southern route, intercepting Iranian drone and cruise missile strikes; a two-week bombing campaign to degrade the Revolutionary Guard's maritime strike capabilities; a large-scale mine-clearing operation involving Navy divers, SEAL teams, and unmanned vehicles; and a reinstated blockade of Iranian ports.
Conditions on the ground have markedly improved. While shipping volumes haven't returned to pre-war levels, U.S. forces now effectively control most of the strait. U.S. officials report that only 2% of vessels transiting last month came under attack, and over 200 suspected mine targets have been cleared. Currently, 20 to 30 tankers pass through the southern route nightly, moving 9 to 10 million barrels of crude per day—roughly half the pre-war flow. General Brad Cooper, commander of U.S. Central Command, stated in an official video Thursday: "The internationally recognized shipping lanes of the Strait of Hormuz are free of mine threats. International shipping has resumed, and momentum is building."
Despite oil experts' reservations about the current transit data, the U.S. has set a target: expand the main channel by mid-September to accommodate 50 vessels nightly, restoring crude exports to 60-70% of pre-war levels. The UAE, Bahrain, and Kuwait have already joined U.S.-led escort operations, with Saudi Arabia expected to follow.
The shift in the strait's dynamics has reverberated diplomatically. Regional sources indicate Iran has recently shown a strong willingness to negotiate. The Pakistani Army Chief, Oman's Foreign Minister, and Qatar's Prime Minister have all visited Tehran consecutively, attempting to mediate between Washington and Tehran. Although Iran publicly insists on the U.S. honoring the defunct MOU, Trump has responded coolly, posting on social media that Iran is "begging" for a deal while he has no current intention to meet. However, White House envoy Steve Witkoff remains in contact with mediators like Qatar. U.S. negotiators believe sustained blockades and economic pressure have given Washington decisive leverage, rendering the previous MOU obsolete, and they are waiting for Iran to make substantive concessions under duress.