The head of the US airline trade association has indicated that fares are expected to settle rather than surge, even as the ongoing conflict in Iran continues to pressure jet fuel costs.

Chris Sununu, the CEO of Airlines for America, noted on Sunday that while the price of jet fuel has risen sharply since the outbreak of the war six months ago, ticket prices are likely to hold steady for an extended period. He pointed to robust travel demand as a key factor, stating that he does not foresee any dramatic hikes. Sununu added that, unfortunately, there is no immediate end in sight for the situation in Iran, which means fares will probably remain stable for quite some time. He emphasized that the impact is expected to be more severe in Asia and Europe.

According to data from the travel platform Kayak, the current average price of jet fuel is $3.82 per gallon, a slight retreat from the May peak of $4 per gallon. Both domestic and international airfares in the US reached their highest levels in May, with domestic tickets costing nearly $100 more than the same period last year, while international fares have risen by over $200 year-on-year.

Sununu reported that domestic flight prices are currently up 20% compared to last year and will not climb any further. He observed that market demand is strong and the public's enthusiasm for travel remains high, which helps stimulate economic activity across multiple sectors and is generally beneficial for the economy. The former governor of New Hampshire explained that even with fuel costs having doubled, airlines are absorbing a portion of the expenses themselves. He noted that although fares have only increased by 20%, they would nearly have to double if carriers passed on all their costs to consumers. Companies are refraining from doing so to maintain their competitive edge in the market.

The soaring price of jet fuel has nearly doubled in some regions. Both United Airlines and American Airlines project that their fuel expenses will increase by approximately $6 billion this year compared to last year, a rise of 50% relative to 2025. Data from the US Bureau of Transportation Statistics for July indicates that the primary driver behind higher ticket prices is the escalating fuel costs, rather than travel demand alone.

In May, US airlines consumed 1.627 billion gallons of jet fuel, with the average procurement price nearly doubling year-on-year to $4.09 per gallon. Fuel represents one of the largest operating expenses for the aviation industry. The high oil prices have forced carriers to raise fares and cut flight schedules. Spirit Airlines, which failed to secure a bailout from the Trump administration, was hit particularly hard by the elevated fuel prices and ceased operations in May.

The ongoing US naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, through which roughly one-fifth of the world's oil exports pass, continues to disrupt supply. Iran is maintaining the closure of the strait and is seeking agreements with regional nations such as Oman to establish alternative routes for its oil exports.