On Thursday 3 September, international spot gold registered another solid gain, continuing the upward trajectory that began with Wednesday's bounce from lower levels. The momentum was underpinned by traders scaling back expectations for a September rate hike following comments from Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller, while softer-than-expected US data, including Challenger job cuts and weekly initial jobless claims, added further support to bullion. Gold opened the Asian session at $4,391.12 per ounce, quickly dipping to an intraday low of $4,381.01 before reversing course. Through the midday and European hours, prices oscillated within a $4,420–$4,444 range before a renewed push higher at the US open, lifting the metal to a daily peak of $4,510.58. A late pullback trimmed gains, with gold settling at $4,472.87, marking a daily range of $129.57 and a net advance of $81.75, or 1.86%.
Looking ahead to Friday 4 September, gold has opened with a slight softness inherited from the overnight retreat, but following two consecutive sessions of strong gains, the bullish bias is clearly in control. The US dollar index slipped back below its 200-day moving average yesterday, signalling renewed weakness in the greenback, which strengthens the case for additional upside in bullion. As such, dips toward key moving-average supports are increasingly viewed as fresh buying opportunities.
Where to focus today
The spotlight shifts to the US August employment report, featuring the unemployment rate, nonfarm payrolls, and average hourly earnings data. Market consensus points to steady unemployment, stronger headline payroll growth versus the prior month, and mixed wage figures. However, given the softness visible in this week's ADP private payrolls and jobless claims numbers, there is a strong likelihood that the official employment data will either miss expectations or not overshoot them significantly. That would likely translate into gold-positive price action during the US session, implying either sideways consolidation or renewed strength. From a trading perspective, the strategy is to favour buying pullbacks, maintaining a bullish outlook for intraday moves.
Why the weekly and daily charts are turning constructive
On the weekly timeframe, gold's prior week ended with a rejection at resistance, confirming a bearish reversal signal from the ZZ indicator. This week, however, the metal has staged a convincing rebound from support, having tested the 60-week moving average as highlighted in earlier forecasts. This not only validates the bearish topping pattern from last week but also suggests that the corrective downside pressure has been fully absorbed. The market now appears poised for another leg higher, with this week's closing price being critical. A bullish candlestick formation, or a close above $4,530, could pave the way for continued appreciation next week.
On the daily chart, gold's bounce has pushed prices back above the 5-day moving average and the middle Bollinger Band. The immediate hurdle lies at the 200-day moving average, which must be cleared to open the path toward the key resistance zone at $4,725 and potentially higher. Support is clustered around the middle Bollinger Band, the 5-day moving average, and the 30-day moving average, all of which offer potential entry levels for long positions.
Key price levels for the session
For gold, immediate support is found near $4,430 and $4,380 per ounce, while resistance stands at $4,520 and $4,580. In silver, support is noted at $66.50 and $66.10, with resistance at $67.75 and $68.85. These levels serve as reference points for intraday trading; precise entry and exit orders will be communicated via real-time client updates.
Historical data and market indicators suggest that today's trading session could bring heightened volatility, and the direction will largely hinge on the nonfarm payrolls outcome. Given the data backdrop, the bias is tilted toward gold extending its rebound, with any weakness viewed as a buying opportunity rather than a reversal signal.