Recent price action in the gold market has confirmed that geopolitical instability, global de-dollarization efforts, and anxieties over a weakening U.S. dollar are once again taking center stage. According to Christopher Louney, Head of Global Commodity Strategy and MENA Research at RBC Capital Markets, the precious metal is now positioned to resume its upward trajectory toward the $5,000 per ounce mark.

Sticking to Initial Projections: Drivers Paused, Not Diminished

In his latest commodity analysis, Louney wrote: "We have remained consistent throughout the year, maintaining the forecasts we issued last December, and for good reason. We have consistently emphasized that while gold's underlying drivers may have taken a temporary pause, they remain fully intact. Despite ETP holdings experiencing losses exceeding a full quarter, we still believe that the return of allocation-driven flows, spurred by uncertainty, de-dollarization, and depreciation concerns, is on the horizon. The eventual return of these flows to push prices higher has already been validated by the gold recovery in early August, current pricing levels, and prevailing inflow patterns."

Specific Target Ranges: $4,929 by Year-End and $5,296 by 2027

Louney stated: "We continue to believe that for the majority of the remaining year, gold should trade within the $4,500 to $5,000 range. We maintain this view with high conviction. We are now specifically highlighting the medium-to-high scenario ranges for the third and fourth quarters, as well as the full-year average. As we approach year-end, we lean towards the high scenario for 2026, which is $4,929 per ounce. Similarly, for 2027, we favor the high point of $5,296 per ounce." He added, "In any case, our medium-to-high scenario range remains the most probable price band within our forecast."

Lessons from 2025: Uncertainty Leads to Under-Allocation

In the RBC 2026 Gold Outlook published last December, Louney had noted: "Amidst the prevailing uncertainty, gold has proven its worth throughout the year. As long as that uncertainty persists, we believe gold's strategic foundation points to the path of least resistance being either sideways or higher." He wrote at the time: "If there is one key lesson from 2025 that should be applied to 2026, it is this: although uncertainty can manifest in various forms, the persistent uncertainty surrounding tariffs, geopolitics, conflicts, politics, government shutdowns, and legislation has left investors feeling under-allocated in gold. When this is combined with gold's strong price performance and its low correlation, we believe gold is now more readily accepted as a strategic component of investment portfolios."

Central Banks Remain the Pillar: The Narrative Itself Paves the Way

RBC also forecasts that central banks will continue to act as a cornerstone of gold demand through 2026. Louney commented: "Beyond the sheer volume of purchases, the narrative of sustained, large-scale central bank buying provides a greater permissive structure for broader investor participation in gold." In other words, the ongoing central bank accumulation not only constitutes direct demand but also sends a clear market signal that gold merits allocation, thereby opening the door for other capital inflows.

Conclusion

From holding the line during the period of ETP losses exceeding a quarter to now declaring targets of $4,929 by year-end and $5,296 for next year, RBC's stance has been unwavering: the drivers of gold are paused, but never gone. The resurgence of geopolitical conflicts, de-dollarization, debt concerns, and depreciation fears is steering capital back toward this enduring narrative. Meanwhile, persistent central bank buying serves as the most solid anchor for this market trend. For gold, the $5,000 level may not be a final destination but rather the starting point for repricing this cycle of uncertainty premium.

Spot gold was trading at $4,431.56 per ounce as of 13:58 Beijing time on September 3rd.