Signals from the latest private payroll report have cooled expectations for further Federal Reserve rate increases, fueling a robust rally in the nonferrous metals sector today (September 3). Baiyin Nonferrous Group Co.,Ltd. hit the daily limit, while Hunan Silver advanced over 7%, and Chujiang New Materials, Hunan Gold, and Huayu Mining each climbed more than 5%. The nonferrous metals ETF tracker (159876), which captures leaders across the industry, saw its underlying index gain nearly 2% intraday before closing up 1.27%.

On the data front, the ADP Research Institute reported Wednesday that U.S. private sector employment expanded by just 37,000 jobs in August, down from 46,000 in the prior month and marking the weakest monthly increase since January. This further slowdown in private sector hiring—the most tepid reading of the year—has reignited concerns about a cooling labor market. Shenyin & Wanguo Futures noted that the softer-than-expected August ADP figure marginally reduced the odds of a September rate hike, providing a lift to precious metals. The ADP report serves as a forward-looking indicator for the official nonfarm payrolls data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, due Friday (September 4) at 8:30 p.m. Beijing time. This release ranks among the most critical economic data points ahead of the Fed's September 15-16 policy meeting, with the U.S. CPI inflation report due September 11 also poised to influence rate expectations.

According to CME's FedWatch tool, following the ADP release, the probability of the Fed holding rates steady in September rose to 37.8% (up from 33.8% prior), while the likelihood of a 25-basis-point hike fell to 62.2% (down from 66.2%). CICC Research argues that even if the Fed opts for a brief hike in September, it would not necessarily be detrimental, as a realized hike could signal that negative news has been fully priced in. For gold, a temporary rate increase might exert short-term pressure, but given the absence of a sustained tightening cycle, such pressure would remain manageable, with attention shifting to other market narratives.

Turning to fundamentals, profitability within the nonferrous sector has been impressive. All 60 constituent stocks of the nonferrous ETF (159876) have now reported interim results for 2026, with every single component posting positive earnings. In terms of net profit attributable to shareholders, Zijin Mining, CMOC Group, and Chalco led the pack with figures of 39.17 billion yuan, 16.152 billion yuan, and 11.871 billion yuan, respectively. On growth metrics, nearly half of the constituents (28 stocks) saw net profit attributable to shareholders more than double year-over-year. Tianqi Lithium recorded a staggering nearly 50-fold surge, while Sinomine Resource Group posted an 11-fold increase, leading the gainers.

In the era of computing power, nonferrous metals serve as a foundational building block. The nonferrous ETF (159876) and its feeder funds (Class A: 017140, Class C: 017141) track an index that comprehensively covers copper, aluminum, rare earths, gold, lithium, tungsten, molybdenum, and tin, offering full-spectrum exposure across precious metals, industrial metals, energy metals, and strategic minor metals. This allows investors to capture the broader sector's beta, with heavyweight holdings including Zijin Mining, CMOC, China Northern Rare Earth, Chalco, and Zhongjin Gold. Additionally, the ETF is eligible for margin trading, making it an efficient one-click tool for nonferrous metals exposure.

Source: Shanghai and Shenzhen exchanges and others, as of September 3, 2026. *Institutional views referenced from Shenyin & Wanguo Futures' September 3 article "U.S. August 'Small Nonfarm' Misses Expectations, Gold Prices Oscillate Higher," and CICC Research's August 31 piece "What Does Warsh's Hawkish Turn Mean?". Note: All stocks mentioned are constituent holdings of the nonferrous ETF (159876) underlying index, with weightings as of end-August: Zijin Mining 11.14%, CMOC 7.12%, Chalco 3.31%, Hunan Gold 1.27%, Tianqi Lithium 2.21%, Sinomine Resource 1.66%, Ganfeng Lithium 2.60%, Baiyin Nonferrous 0.87%, Hunan Silver 1.05%, Chujiang New Materials 0.57%, and Huayu Mining 0.65%. Index constituents are shown for illustrative purposes only and do not constitute investment advice or reflect any fund's holdings or trading activity.

ETF fee details: For subscriptions and redemptions, agents may charge commissions up to 0.5%. On-exchange trading fees depend on brokerage policies. The ETF does not charge sales service fees. Feeder fund fee structure: Class A shares charge a subscription fee of 1% for amounts under 1 million yuan, 0.6% for 1-2 million yuan, and 1,000 yuan flat for 2 million yuan or above; redemption fees are 1.5% for holdings under 7 days and 0% thereafter, with no sales service fee. Class C shares charge no subscription fee, a redemption fee of 1.5% for holdings under 7 days and 0% thereafter, and a 0.3% annual sales service fee.

Risk disclosure: The nonferrous ETF passively tracks the CSI Nonferrous Metals Index, with a base date of December 31, 2013, and a launch date of July 13, 2015. Index constituent composition adjusts according to index rules, and historical backtested performance does not guarantee future results. The fund is rated R3 (medium risk) by the manager, suitable for balanced (C3) and above investors; suitability matching should be confirmed with sales institutions. Any information in this article, including but not limited to stocks, comments, forecasts, charts, indicators, theories, or any form of expression, is for reference only. Investors bear full responsibility for their own investment decisions. Views, analyses, and predictions herein do not constitute investment advice and the publisher assumes no liability for direct or indirect losses arising from use of this content. Fund investing involves risks; past performance does not indicate future results, and the performance of other funds managed by the same manager does not guarantee this fund's performance. Invest with caution.