Apple Stock is Days Away from an Inflection Point. Why Next iPhone Launch Matters More than Ever.

Dow Jones
Yesterday

It's showtime for Apple.

The tech giant announced last week its annual iPhone event will take place on Sept. 9, and Wall Street believes the stakes couldn't be higher with Apple expected to announce the new iPhone 18 Pro, the iPhone 18 Pro Max, and its long-awaited foldable iPhone.

Apple stock rose 0.5% to $326.60 in premarket trading on Wednesday after ending Tuesday up 2.6%. Shares have gained 1.7% this week as of the closing bell on Tuesday and have risen about 4% since the company announced next week's launch.

Shares have jumpoed nearly 20% this year and have outperformed the S&P 500.

Morgan Stanley analyst Erik Woodring on Wednesday wrote "this may be Apple's most consequential iPhone launch since iPhone X" back in 2017.

But there's more to it than that. While Woodring wrote that the launch event should have a similar format to past years, the "implications from this event matter greatly for the setup into year-end."

Part of the importance of the event is due to it being the first under new CEO John Ternus, which could add pomp and circumstance to the festivities-especially if the foldable iPhone is released.

Woodring called the foldable iPhone the biggest "form-factor" change since the iPhone X and that the new smartphone could contribute about $14 billion in revenue to the December quarter.

But the big test could be iPhone prices and Morgan Stanley believes the excitement around the foldable iPhone will be tested by what is likely to be the "broadest, and most significant, like-for-like iPhone price hikes in company history."

The ramifications of the event could be long-lasting for Apple stock and could dictate how shares trade through the end of the year, according to Woodring.

Citi analyst Asiya Merchant on Wednesday added that Apple stock historically outperforms the broader market ahead of the iPhone launch.

"We expect Apple to remain one of the most resilient vendors through the downturn with share gains attributable to its premium customer base, financing options, and component access," Merchant wrote.

 

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