The latest Market Talks covering Basic Materials. Published exclusively on Dow Jones Newswires at 4:20 ET, 12:20 ET and 16:50 ET.

0758 GMT - The budget for the Vicuna copper project BHP is developing with Lundin Mining is likely to rise above the current phase-one estimate of $7 billion-$8 billion, Barclays says following an analyst roundtable with BHP's CEO and CFO. "It was clear from the discussion that a higher number is likely," Barclays says. The budget for a new concentrator at BHP's Escondida mine is seen as "less at risk," the bank says. At its FY26 results, BHP increased its capex estimate for the concentrator project by 14%, to $5.4 billion-$6.3 billion, but the increase mainly reflects a larger project scope, says Barclays. "BHP feels relatively more comfortable about the capex risks" there, it says. (rhiannon.hoyle@wsj.com; @RhiannonHoyle)

0317 GMT - Paladin Energy "never expects" to sustain Langer Heinrich's nameplate production rate of 6 million pounds for a year, says a surprised Ord Minnett. "So we trimmed to 5.7" million pounds, the broker says of its annual production forecasts for FY28-FY30. It also raises projections for sustaining capex, citing new pits and tailings facilities. Ord's remarks follow an investor day, where it says it got a better grasp on "the strong resource upside" at Paladin's PLS project. Yet it thinks a capex estimate of US$1.2 billion is probably low. It expects other projects "will need to be deferred due to PLS funding challenges, which will no doubt include a significant capital raise." The broker downgrades to sell from lighten. Its target rises to 9.00 Australian dollars from A$8.50. The stock is up 3.1% at A$11.61. (rhiannon.hoyle@wsj.com; @RhiannonHoyle)

0208 GMT - The way for Rio Tinto to create more value from its big aluminum business is by improving returns, not volume growth, says Morgan Stanley. Today, Rio's aluminum division is "a high-quality but mixed-return business," MS says. The bank sees operational and brownfield projects as "the most practical levers" for creating value. It highlights the AP60 ramp-up, Weipa replacement and expansion, and Matalco utilization, among other possible drivers. "The key test is whether future spending can lift ROCE [return on capital employed] and free cash flow, rather than merely sustain the existing asset base," says MS. "The company owns a differentiated aluminium business; executing on operational improvements and brownfield expansions will determine whether it can sustain a durable earnings and cash-flow pillar alongside iron ore and copper." (rhiannon.hoyle@wsj.com; @RhiannonHoyle)

0042 GMT - Stanmore's US$105 million acquisition of Moranbah South coal-project tenements from Exxaro represents a relatively low-cost strategic acquisition, at roughly US$0.14/metric ton, says Ord Minnett. It also helps Stanmore avoid up to US$60 million in deferred and contingent acquisition payments that would be owing once the Isaac Downs Extension is developed, the broker says. "While some investors may be concerned about the near-term increase to net debt, we see any weakness in the share price as a buying opportunity given current met-coal price tailwinds," it says. The broker has a buy rating and target price of 3.95 Australian dollars a share on Stanmore. The stock is down 1.0% at A$2.91. (rhiannon.hoyle@wsj.com; @RhiannonHoyle)

Sunstone Metals's double dose of good news helps to entrench Shaw & Partners's bullish view of its stock. Firstly, metallurgical testwork returned materially higher recoveries of precious and base metals than previously assumed in an April scoping study. Recovery rates for copper is now at 80%, up from 75%. For gold, the recovery rate rises to 93%, from 85%. Secondly, recent assays have extended mineralisation outside the existing Bramaderos Resource, analyst Peter Kormendy says. "With only a handful of assays outstanding, we see limited scope for the December Quarter resource update to disappoint on grade or continuity," Shaw says. "The key swing factor remains how much of the 1.7-3.5 million oz Copete-Porotillo and Melonal-linked exploration targets convert to resource in the next update." (david.winning@wsj.com; @dwinningWSJ)

2237 GMT [Dow Jones]--NexGen Energy gets a new bull in Jefferies, which is drawn to the Rook I high-grade uranium project in Canada. Rook I, one of the world's largest undeveloped projects, hosts the Arrow uranium deposit. Jefferies says Arrow can underpin an operation producing 28 million lbs a year. A separate discovery, known as PCE, is around two miles away with the potential to share infrastructure. Analyst Daniel Roden says this would add scale and longevity. "At 28 million lbs Rook may supply 14% of global reactor demand," says Jefferies. "Shortfalls can influence incentive pricing on residual production, partially hedging execution risk." Jefferies says NexGen offers differentiated exposure to uranium, so should be a core sector holding of investors. It starts NexGen at buy, with a A$20.60/share price target. NexGen ended Thursday at A$14.30. (david.winning@wsj.com; @dwinningWSJ)

1833 GMT - Gold futures rise for a second session as Treasury yields ease and the dollar weakens, with the market waiting to see Friday's August employment report and its implications for the Fed's mid-September meeting. Gold traders are also keeping a wary eye on events in the Middle East, where renewed fighting is pushing up oil prices, risking inflation pressures that could in turn lead to higher interest rates. Front-month gold settles up 2.9% in New York at $4,491.70 a troy ounce. Silver rises 3.5% to $66.973 a troy ounce. (anthony.harrup@wsj.com)

1818 GMT - Gold futures rise for a second session as Treasury yields ease and the dollar weakens, with the market waiting to see Friday's August employment report and its implications for the Fed's mid-September meeting. Gold traders are also keeping a wary eye on events in the Middle East, where renewed fighting is pushing up oil prices, risking inflation pressures that could in turn lead to higher interest rates. Front-month gold settles up 2.9% in New York at $4,491.70 a troy ounce. Silver rises 3.5% to $66.973 a troy ounce. (anthony.harrup@wsj.com)

1601 GMT--Gold futures are higher with Treasury yields easing further and the dollar losing ground. "Lower U.S. Treasury yields and a weaker dollar are creating favorable conditions for gold, but this represents only a short-term improvement," XS.com market analyst Linh Tran says in a note. The near-term outlook will depend heavily on upcoming U.S. economic data, she adds. The recovery is expected to continue, although "the advance is unlikely to follow a straight line, particularly with several important U.S. employment and inflation reports approaching." Gold for December delivery rises 2.8% to $4,536.90 a troy ounce. Silver gains 3.2% to $67.54 a troy ounce. (anthony.harrup@wsj.com)

1153 GMT - Anglo American is progressing on its planned simplification and is well-positioned to create significant value, Jefferies analysts write. The London-listed miner is expected to complete its $53 billion merger with Canada-based Teck Resources by March 2027, but Jefferies believes it could close by the end of this year. "Overall, Anglo's plans and execution have been just what the doctor ordered for a recovery from the company's challenging 2023," the analysts say. Jefferies has a buy rating on the stock and atarget price of 50 pounds. Shares are up 1.1% at 41.78 pounds and 35% higher over the year to date.