The latest Market Talks covering FX and Fixed Income. Published exclusively on Dow Jones Newswires throughout the day.

1429 ET - The impact of Fed Chairman Warsh's Jackson Hole speech on Treasury markets seems to be fading fast. Warsh's promise to bring inflation down to the Fed's 2% target spurred bets on a September hike. As a result, two-year Treasury yields, which are more sensitive to such moves, rose faster than longer-term ones. But with the new flare-up in Hormuz and consequent oil spike, the two-year yield declines to 4.346% from an overnight high of 4.364%. The 10-year goes in the opposite direction and reaches 4.758%, the highest level since January 2025. (paulo.trevisani@wsj.com; @ptrevisani)

1336 ET - Perpetual futures trading volume on prediction market Kalshi jumped in August, the company tells the WSJ. Nearly $13.7 billion in perpetual futures have been traded on Kalshi in the past 3 weeks -- which is "nearly twice the volume of the entire month of July," a spokeswoman says. Kalshi today submitted a filing with the CFTC to allow the exchange to trade perpetual futures for FX, including the euro and USD. This month, Kalshi also filed with the CFTC to allow for the trading of equity perpetuals. (kirk.maltais@wsj.com)

1318 ET - Eight of the 10 best metros for purchasing a newly built home are in the South, according to Realtor.com. Leading the way is Charleston-North Charleston, S.C., where the median newly built home is priced 12.2% below the median existing home. The ranking finds that markets with builder-friendly conditions are giving buyers more opportunity to find a new home with a competitive price, ample availability and strong demand, Realtor.com says. The Charleston metro's median new-build listing price is $443,273, compared with $504,832 for existing homes, the strongest new-construction price advantage among the top 10 markets. Greenville-Anderson-Greer, S.C., ranks second, followed by Boise City, Idaho. Realtor.com's list is dominated by small-to-midsize metros. (chris.wack@wsj.com)

1257 ET - The rebound seen in cryptocurrencies appears to have hit near-term resistance levels, with further upward momentum depending on next moves by the Fed. "If bitcoin ETF inflows and stablecoin supply continue rising while markets maintain a greater-than-50-percent probability of a September hike, [we] believe it would provide stronger evidence that underlying crypto demand can withstand tighter monetary conditions," says Bitfinex in a note. "If those flows begin to weaken as rate expectations rise, the macro backdrop could increasingly cap bitcoin's upside." Bitcoin is flat at $78,620, while other cryptocurrencies are mixed. (kirk.maltais@wsj.com)

1227 ET - Bitcoin treasury firm Strategy has ended its pause on bitcoin purchasing, confirming that it bought 4,603 BTC at an average price of $80,318. That's a buy of roughly $370 million, and brings Strategy's bitcoin stocks to 845,050 BTC at an average price of $75,412. Bitcoin turned positive on the news, and is now nominally higher at $78,585. That leaves Strategy's stockpile in the black by $2.68 billion, after sagging bitcoin prices put the inventory into a hole of $10 to $15 billion earlier this year. Strategy's last reported bitcoin purchase was on June 22, according to data from the company. Since then, a number of sales were reported, with nearly 7,000 BTC sold. (kirk.maltais@wsj.com)

1210 ET - Prediction market exchange Kalshi has filed a new proposal to the CFTC to allow for the implementation of FX perpetual futures. These would include perp contracts for the USD and euro, adding for Kalshi's stable of available perp contracts. "The FX market is the largest financial trading market in the world," says a spokesperson for Kalshi in a note. "BIS's latest comprehensive survey found $9.6 trillion of average daily FX turnover in April 2025, up 28% from $7.5T/day in 2022." Kalshi has been the target of litigation challenging prediction markets, contending that they're just gambling with investment-sounding terminology. "[We have] supported state efforts to protect consumers from unregulated gambling from the get-go," says CFTC watchdog Better Markets in a note Friday. (kirk.maltais@wsj.com)

1159 ET - A streak of investor capital coming back into bitcoin ETFs was snapped on Friday, according to data from CoinGlass. An outflow of $201.9 million was recorded for bitcoin ETFs on Aug. 28, breaking a two-week streak of inflows into those ETFs. ETF activity has been an indicator of institutional investor interest in cryptocurrencies, which has been low through the first-half of the year as money flowed into more lucrative assets like AI and semiconductor stocks. Investor risk appetite has since changed, making assets like bitcoin and gold more attractive to institutional money - although bitcoin appears to have found resistance around the $80,000 mark. It's down 0.1% to $78,530. (kirk.maltais@wsj.com)

1117 ET - Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said he is not going to speculate on what the Fed may do at its September interest rate meeting. "We've seen a supply shock, and traditionally you don't raise...unless you see second or third-order effects," Bessent said in an interview on CNBC. Bessent said core inflation has remained very restrained, and there will be a productivity boom on the other side of the AI-buildout. After Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh's debut speech at Jackson Hole, odds for a rate hike rose above 60%, according to CME's FedWatch tool.(jessica.coacci@wsj.com)

1110 ET - Ethereum has posted big gains in the latter-half of the summer, but it appears that the cryptocurrency has found stiff resistance at the $2,500-mark. It's being viewed as a key test for if the rallying seen in ethereum - which has gained nearly 30% in the past week-and-a-half alone - has any more room to run. "A successful move could fuel further upside, otherwise Ethereum may need to consolidate its recent gains," says Bret Kenwell of eToro in a note. Traders appear to be embracing consolidation today. Ethereum is down 1% to $2,467, while bitcoin falls 0.2% to $78,457, XRP is down 1.5% to $1.38, and solana falls 1.2% to $103.47. (kirk.maltais@wsj.com)

1052 ET - The global hard-currency sukuk, or Islamic bond, market remained resilient in the first half of 2026 despite geopolitical and macroeconomic volatility, Fitch Ratings says. Around 82% of Fitch-rated listed hard-currency sukuk were investment grade at the end of June, with no defaults during the period and outstanding Fitch-rated securities exceeding $221 billion. Nearly 95% of sukuk listed on the London Stock Exchange originated from the Middle East, mainly the Gulf, with Saudi Arabia accounting for close to 60%. Renewed regional tensions could weigh on investor sentiment, growth and issuance activity, Fitch says. (farhan.rafid@wsj.com)

1032 ET - Germany's governing coalition could see its room for maneuver squeezed by a weak performance in coming regional elections, Alexander Valentin at Oxford Economics warns. The far-right AfD is projected to make gains at elections in three states in Europe's most important economy in September, possibly winning a majority in at least one. That move away from the center dominated by the ruling coalition could spread to other, larger states voting next year, Valentin writes in a note. "We see an increasing risk of a political stalemate at the national level that would derail necessary reforms and could prompt us to revise Germany's potential growth downwards," he says. (joshua.kirby@wsj.com; @joshualeokirby)

1017 ET - Tariffs Canada will impose in retaliation for new U.S. levies will help some industries but hurt most and weaken economic growth by raising costs for producers and consumers, Oxford Economics argues. And Oxford's analysis suggests fiscal relief planned by Ottawa will briefly soften the economic impact of the Trump administration's tariffs but won't offset the overall drag from bilateral levies. It says paper, wood, steel, and aluminum product manufacturers will see the largest marginal benefit from Canadian counter-tariffs, since they will reduce U.S. imports and encourage substitution toward domestic production. But Oxford adds nearly all Canadian manufacturers will feel net negative impacts from the bilateral tariff escalation.