Financial Services Roundup: Market Talk

Dow Jones
Yesterday

The latest Market Talks covering Financial Services. Exclusively on Dow Jones Newswires at 4:20 ET, 12:20 ET and 16:50 ET.

0813 GMT - Bank of Communications likely remains a solid dividend play, say DBS Group Research analysts in a note. They estimate the Chinese lender to offer a dividend yield of more than 5.0% for 2026-2027 at its current valuation, after Bank of Communications raised its dividend payout ratio to 31% from 30%, they say. While its shares have risen around 20% year-to-date, its price-to-book ratio valuation is on the lower end among peers, the analysts say. They expect about 4.4% earnings compound annual growth rate over 2025-2028. DBS raises its Hong Kong share target price to 8.50 Hong Kong dollars from HK$7.75 and maintains a buy rating. Shares rise 1.7% to HK$7.995.(megan.cheah@wsj.com)

0701 GMT - China Merchants Bank remains poised to capture China's medium-to-long-term wealth opportunities despite near-term challenges, say DBS Group Research analysts in a note. The wealth management segment remains the lender's key fee income contributor and should offer steady growth this year, even as bank card fees are set to decline, they say. Still, the bank faces greater near-term challenges from weaker loan growth as retail loan demand in China remains subdued, as well as larger net-interest margin pressure from relatively low deposit rates. The analysts expect around a 4.5% earnings compound annual growth rate over 2025-2028. DBS raises its Hong Kong share target price to 58.50 Hong Kong dollars from HK$53.50 and maintains a buy rating. Shares rise 2.5% to HK$53.20. (megan.cheah@wsj.com)

0653 GMT - The dollar rises slightly after dropping significantly on Thursday following comments from Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller, who said he would support holding interest rates steady if inflation data back this up. Market attention turns to key U.S. nonfarm payrolls data at 1230 GMT. A strong jobs reading could revive expectations for a Fed rate hike, boosting the dollar, while weak data could increase prospects of unchanged rates and send the currency lower. Investors are cautious due to uncertainty around payroll growth, inflation and the next interest-rate decision, says Clarity Global CEO Mariia Menahem in a note. The DXY dollar index rises 0.1% to 98.989, having dropped to a 10-day low of 98.831 on Thursday. (jessica.fleetham@wsj.com)

0635 GMT - AXA's upcoming new strategic plan will modestly upgrade key metrics, RBC Capital Markets analysts say. This will reflect operational progress and reduced balance sheet volatility for the French insurer after the completion of major deals. RBC expects AXA's new earnings per share compound annual growth range for 2026-29 period to be set at between 7% and 9%, compared with between 6% and 8% previously. On returns, RBC forecasts a 10 percentage point increase to a total payout of 85%. "While French fiscal stress and 2027 elections warrant monitoring, with AXA the most exposed composite on French sovereign bonds, we view the risk as manageable given AXA's well-diversified portfolio," RBC adds. RBC maintains an outperform recommendation on the stock and increases its price target to 54.00 euros from 52.00 euros. Shares closed at 44.21 euros on Thursday. (michael.hennessey@wsj.com)

0511 GMT - Bitcoin edges lower in the Asia, pausing after crossing $82,000 but firmly above $80,000. The closely watched level was crossed overnight after comments from Fed Gov. Waller pared expectations of aggressive rate hikes. Analysts are looking for a sustained run above $80,000 to confirm an upturn after volatility followed August's surge. The gains in Ethereum, Ripple and other coins are encouraging, signaling that buying is spreading across the ecosystem, says Antonio Di Giacomo at XS.com. The upswing is also significant because of the challenging backdrop for risk assets. Bond yields remain elevated and markets continue to weigh the possibility of further rate hikes globally. Higher yields normally reduce the appeal of crypto, but it's withstanding the pressure in recent sessions, he says. Bitcoin last trades at $81,016 after touching $82,163. (fabiana.negrinochoa@wsj.com)

0059 GMT - Malaysian banking sector earnings are expected to remain broadly resilient into 2H, supported by steady loan growth and improving business loan pipelines, Hong Leong IB analyst Raymond Ng says in a note. However, persistent deposit competition, elevated funding costs and margin compression are likely to limit earnings upside, while credit costs could remain elevated amid macroeconomic and geopolitical uncertainties, he says. Current valuations could have largely reflect optimism surrounding capital management, he reckons. With the confirmed KLCI expansion potentially creating a transitory overhang in 2H, there are few immediate catalysts for a further sector re-rating, Ng adds. Hong Leong maintains a neutral rating on Malaysian banking sector, pegging Alliance Bank Malaysia as his top pick. (yingxian.wong@wsj.com)

2232 GMT - Could a third party attempt to gatecrash a takeover of MaxiPARTS? Ord Minnett assesses the possibility. MaxiPARTS has received a A$2.50-a-share proposal from Ares Management. Its directors are supportive if Ares firms up the bid. Examining potential interlopers, analyst James Casey says Bapcor is the most obvious candidate. Bapcor owns commercial-vehicle businesses Truckline and WANO. "Acquiring MaxiPARTS would roughly double Bapcor's exposure to the segment and offer obvious synergies," Ord Minnett says. "However, it is unclear whether Bapcor's new management team has investor backing to pursue a major acquisition while the company is still in a turnaround." Another possible suitor is Genuine Parts Co., which owns Repco in Australia. It has no commercial-vehicle exposure in Australia, but has acquired similar businesses overseas, says Ord Minnett. (david.winning@wsj.com; @dwinningWSJ)

1619 GMT [Dow Jones]--Gains in bitcoin through August have inspired optimism in the cryptocurrency space, with CoinMarketCap's Fear and Greed index at 77 out of 100, a "greed" reading. But the foundation of these gains are possibly not as strong as some may have hoped. "Perpetual-futures positioning shows the move up came mostly from shorts being liquidated and covered; few new long positions were opened, and shorts have started to rebuild," say analysts with CryptoQuant in a note. Bitcoin has broken through the $80,000 mark, trading up 4.7% to $81,054. Ethereum rises 4.7% to $2,506, XRP climbs 7.4% to $1.45, and Solana is up 4.8% to $104.45. (kirk.maltais@wsj.com)

1415 GMT - Luxury home-sale prices in Miami rose 18% year-over-year in July, the biggest increase of the 50 most populous U.S. metros, Redfin says. That's followed by Tampa, where prices increased 15.4%. Luxury prices are growing at least three times faster in those Florida metros as they are in the U.S. as a whole, which posted a 5.3% uptick in July. Non-luxury prices fell 1.3% in Miami, and they were essentially unchanged in Tampa. Luxury home prices are rising on both Florida coasts even as non-luxury prices stagnate, fueled by an influx of wealthy buyers snapping up high-end properties across the state. Affluent Americans are drawn to Florida for its favorable tax environment, warm weather and waterfront lifestyle, keeping demand for luxury homes strong even as the broader housing market softens. (chris.wack@wsj.com)

1410 GMT - New listings of U.S. homes for sale rose 2.1% from a week earlier, Redfin says. That's their highest level in four years. The total number of homes for sale also ticked up. Active listings rose 0.4% week-over-week in welcome news for house hunters, who increasingly have more options and negotiating power. But demand isn't matching the uptick in supply. Pending home sales were essentially flat from a week earlier, dipping to their lowest level since February. High housing costs are the biggest hurdle for prospective buyers. The typical U.S. home-sale price rose 2.2% year-over-year, while the average weekly mortgage rate was 6.66%, near its highest level in the last year. But median U.S. asking price inched down 0.1%, a sign that sellers may be adjusting their expectations as buyers negotiate and push back against high costs. (chris.wack@wsj.com)

1126 GMT - Reinsurers will face increased claims pressures and are likely to absorb a higher share of losses in 2027, Fitch Ratings says. The sector will see increased claims from higher inflation, climate change, and emerging liabilities from geopolitics and artificial intelligence, the ratings agency says. Reinsurers will absorb an increased proportion of losses as primary insurers lower the amount of risk they hold from recent highs. "These pressures, while generating earnings volatility, should help limit the scale of softening compared to that in previous cycles, as we believe a material unexpected loss event could trigger sharper repricing," Fitch adds. (michael.hennessey@wsj.com)

1104 GMT - Fitch Ratings maintains its "deteriorating" outlook on the global reinsurance sector for 2027. The rating agency expects further price declines--though less steep than those seen in 2026--due to ample capacity. Market conditions are likely to remain buyer-friendly, with fierce competition between reinsurers, as capital supply continues to outpace demand. As a result of this--as well as increased claims costs due to inflation pressures--there will be margin and revenue erosion in the sector, Fitch says. However, this won't be enough to affect the sector's strong capital position, Fitch adds. "Supportive investment returns and prior-year reserve releases are likely to mitigate the decline in sector profitability," says Fitch's Manuel Arrive.

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