The latest Market Talks covering Commodities. Published exclusively on Dow Jones Newswires throughout the day.
0242 GMT - Copper prices are higher in early Asian trade, supported by supply concerns after Chile's July output fell 9.4% from a year earlier due to severe weather and mine maintenance, Huatai futures analysts say. Low domestic inventories also continue to underpin the market, though elevated prices are capping demand as downstream buyers remain cautious ahead of the traditional September peak season, they say in a note. Investors also look ahead to U.S. economic data--namely the upcoming nonfarm payrolls report--for clues on the Federal Reserve's policy path. Overall, copper remains cautiously bullish, with any price pullback likely to attract buying interest. The three-month LME copper contract is 0.3% higher at $14,261.00 a ton.(jiahui.huang@wsj.com; @ivy_jiahuihuang)
0241 GMT - Palm oil rises in Asian trading, driven by severe dry weather that is disrupting palm oil shipments in Kalimantan due to declining water levels in key rivers, AmInvestment Bank says in a note. Drought and intensified wildfires in Sumatra and Kalimantan could weigh on palm oil output, it says. Technical analysis suggests CPO futures remain in positive momentum, with any pullbacks attracting buying interest, it adds. AmInvestment Bank expects palm oil prices to face resistance at 4,989 ringgit a ton and find support at 4,922 ringgit a ton. The Bursa Malaysia Derivatives contract for November delivery is up 25 ringgit at 4,983 ringgit a ton. (yingxian.wong@wsj.com)
0235 GMT - Iron ore is flat in early Asian trading. The supply-demand dynamics for iron ore remain largely unchanged, according to Baocheng Futures in a research note. Subdued demand continues to weigh on prices, they say. That said, elevated ocean freight costs and preholiday restocking expectations offer some resistance to downward moves, they say. The most-traded iron ore contract on the Dalian Commodity Exchange is flat at 717 yuan a ton. (tracy.qu@wsj.com)
0206 GMT - Comex gold futures might rise toward $4,600 an ounce, based on technical analysis, StoneX's Matt Simpson says in commentary. Support has been found around the 200-day exponential moving average and the weekly volume point of control, the senior market analyst notes. "A small bullish candle shows that bears lost steam around that support level," Simpson says. Also, "above-average volume relative to the small-range day suggests a 'change of hands' from bears to bulls," he says. "I am on guard for at least a cheeky bounce towards $4,600" an ounce, Simpson adds. Spot gold is 0.4% higher at $4,411.83 an ounce. (ronnie.harui@wsj.com)
0159 GMT - It's possible that Anglo Teck--a planned tie-up of Anglo American and Teck Resources--will benefit from M&A "as either predator or prey," says Jefferies. The bank says the merged company will become one of the world's biggest and highest-quality copper miners, and has significant re-rating potential over the next two to three years. Jefferies expects a rotation out of other copper miners and into Anglo Teck, driving relative outperformance in the shares. "All things considered, and despite justifiably high expectations in the equity markets, Anglo continues to be one of our top picks in the sector," Jefferies says. "Our impression after spending time with the management team this week only reinforces this view." Jefferies thinks the merger could close before the end of this year. (rhiannon.hoyle@wsj.com; @RhiannonHoyle)
0051 GMT - Gold cautiously trades lower in the early Asian session. U.S. non-farm payrolls due this week could influence interest rate bets for the Fed's upcoming September meeting, says Konstantinos Chrysikos of Kudo.com. Softer data can ease the downside risk, while stronger figures or more hawkish Fed comments could add additional weakness to gold, Chrysikos says. Middle East tensions and elevated oil prices are also still sources of risks for the yellow metal, Chrysikos adds. Spot gold is 0.1% lower at $4,387.43 a troy ounce. (kimberley.kao@wsj.com)
1928 GMT - U.S. natural gas futures advance as late-summer heat and LNG exports support demand. Weekly storage data due Thursday are expected to show a reduction in the inventory surplus over the five-year average, and a widening of the deficit over the year-ago level. Analysts in a Wall Street Journal survey expect a storage build of 29 Bcf, smaller than the 37 Bcf average for the week. "Weather-driven consumption is expected to decline more sharply next week, which should eventually create room for larger builds, but the near-term storage trajectory remains tighter than the broader supply backdrop suggests," Gelber & Associates says in a note.Nymex natural gas settles up 1.8% at $2.956/mmBtu. (anthony.harrup@wsj.com)
1923 GMT - Oil futures rise for a third straight session as strikes between the U.S. and Iran raise concerns about further escalation and oil flows out of the Persian Gulf. The EIA reported a bigger-than-expected 4.5 million barrel draw in U.S. commercial crude oil stocks for last week, while the Department of Energy released another 3.1 million barrels from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve. The withdrawal "keeps attention on the increasingly tight market dynamics," says David Russell of TradeStation. Diesel stocks are at the lowest on record for the time of year as farmers and truckers enter their high-demand season, he adds. "Supply and demand fundamentals are taking over as government intervention loses effect and the SPR reaches critical levels." WTI settles up 0.9% at $91.01 a barrel and Brent rises 1% to $95.63. (anthony.harrup@wsj.com)
1904 GMT - Lean hog futures on the CME settle up 0.4% to 74.3 cents a pound, turning around after settling lower on Tuesday. Hog futures have been gradually positioning themselves for a turnaround, says the Hightower Report in a note. "Speculators can look to buy a pullback on October hogs," says the firm. Hog futures finished higher in three of the past four sessions, according to FactSet data. Live cattle futures settle down 0.6% to $2.121 a pound. (kirk.maltais@wsj.com)
1757 GMT - Gold futures snap a three-session losing streak as Treasury yields ease. The market is closely watching for Friday's employment report, where a strong jobs showing could add to Fed rate-hike expectations. ADP reported a smaller-than-expected 38,000 increase in private-sector jobs in August. "Softer data can ease the downside risk, while stronger figures or more hawkish Fed comments may trigger additional weakness," Konstantinos Chrysikos of Kudo.com says in a note. Front month gold rises 0.4% to $4,366.30 a troy ounce. Silver edges up 0.2% to $64.723 a troy ounce. (anthony.harrup@wsj.com)
1741 GMT - Maturing crops in the Plains and Midwest are seeing depleting soil moisture this week, with high temperatures crossing 100°F and pushing crops towards being harvest-ready faster. The NOAA's Climate Prediction Center is forecasting above-average temperatures across the U.S. Corn Belt over the next 6-10 days, only slightly moderating through the next 14 days. The grain market is closely watching to see how much hot weather has impacted the health of crops, with last month's Pro Farmer Midwest Crop Tour revealing that heat stress hurt crops and reporting lower output forecasts versus the same time the prior year. Grains are mixed, with most-active corn up 0.3%, soybeans down 0.2%, and wheat off 0.2%. (kirk.maltais@wsj.com)
1708 GMT - Diesel prices are back on the rise as the Middle East conflict flares up, sending refining margins for the fuel to record levels. "While Iran and the logistical constraints for shipping in the Middle East are primarily in focus, the diesel narrative continues to also be written by the war in Ukraine and the destruction of Russian refinery infrastructure," says Matt Muenster, chief economist at transportation technology firm Breakthrough. While Russia bans diesel exports, the U.S. has been exporting record amounts of the fuel. "These dynamics and the expected demand growth from U.S. agricultural production through harvest season will keep diesel supported at exceptionally high prices this fall," Muenster says. "Continued pressure on diesel prices reinforces expectations that freight transportation costs will keep contributing to broader inflation across the economy."