Global Energy Roundup: Market Talk

Dow Jones
3 hours ago

The latest Market Talks covering Energy markets. Published exclusively on Dow Jones Newswires throughout the day.

1154 GMT - The U.S. dollar is rising, benefiting from higher Treasury yields. "It [the dollar] often does better when U.S. rates are rising unlike many of the other major currencies," Bannockburn Capital Markets' Marc Chandler says in a note. Adding to the dollar's gains is the escalation of the Middle East situation between the U.S. and Iran, which drives oil prices higher. The dollar benefits from this both because the U.S. is an oil exporter and because of the currency's safe-haven role. The DXY dollar index rises 0.2% to 99.590. The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield earlier hit 4.792%, its highest since January 2025, according to LSEG data.(emese.bartha@wsj.com)

1102 GMT - Palm oil prices ended higher, thanks to strength in soybean oil prices and persistent concern over El Nino affecting long-term output, says David Ng, a trader at Kuala Lumpur-based Iceberg X. The trader sees crude palm oil prices facing resistance at 4,850 ringgit a ton and finding support at 5,050 ringgit a ton. The Bursa Malaysia Derivatives contract for November delivery ended MYR79 higher at MYR4,973 a ton. (jiahui.huang@wsj.com; @ivy_jiahuihuang)

1050 GMT - Yields on U.K. government bonds, or gilts, risk climbing further after hitting multi-year highs on Tuesday, says Matthew Amis, investment director at Aberdeen Investments. Renewed U.S.-Iran tensions have lifted oil prices, raising inflation risks and prospects of the Bank of England increasing interest rates in the coming months, Amis says. "Until oil and gas start freely moving in the Straits of Hormuz, gilt yields are going to struggle." Investors are also increasingly cautious ahead of Prime Minister Andy Burnham's first budget on Oct. 28 which will come amid stretched public finances, he says. Ten-year gilt yields earlier hit an 18-year high of 5.255% while 30-year gilts hit their highest since 1998 at 5.904%, LSEG data show. (miriam.mukuru@wsj.com)

1038 GMT - Russia's decision to extend its diesel-export ban through the end of September will add to pressure on an already tight global fuel market, ING says. Supply disruptions from both Russia and the Persian Gulf are coinciding with stronger seasonal demand from Northern Hemisphere harvesting and Southern Hemisphere planting, say ING commodities strategists Warren Patterson and Ewa Manthey in a note. Russia is the world's second-largest diesel exporter and continues to face fuel-supply disruptions amid intensified Ukrainian attacks on energy infrastructure. (farhan.rafid@wsj.com)

1033 GMT - European gas prices remain vulnerable to renewed spikes as restricted Gulf LNG flows threaten to leave the Northern Hemisphere entering winter without normal Qatari supply, ING says. QatarEnergy has extended force majeure for some buyers into early November, while LNG flows from the Persian Gulf remain significantly restricted, say ING commodities strategists Warren Patterson and Ewa Manthey in a note. The tight supply backdrop leaves the global LNG market particularly exposed as the heating season approaches, they say. (farhan.rafid@wsj.com)

0942 GMT - European natural gas prices rise as U.S.-Iran escalations spur supply fears, while demand remains elevated. The benchmark Dutch TTF contract jumps 2.4% to 71.52 euros a megawatt-hour in late morning European trade. While limited supply out of Qatar has pushed gas prices higher, the bigger reason behind the surge in TTF contracts is increased demand, UniCredit strategists write. "Market fears are growing that Europe is behind schedule with its gas restocking, which will likely lead to sustained high demand at least through the end of 2026," the strategists say. European gas inventories are at 65.09% capacity, around 12 percentage points below levels in August 2025, they note. (josephmichael.stonor@wsj.com)

0743 GMT - Oil trades higher after the U.S. and Iran returned to tit-for-tat strikes, renewing concerns over supply from the Persian Gulf. In early morning European trade, Brent crude oil for November delivery rises 1.35% to $91.73 a barrel, while WTI's most-traded contract rises 1.5% to $87.09 a barrel. American forces struck Iran for the first time in a month earlier this week, prompting Iranian retaliation on Jordan, home to thousands of American troops. "Shipping conditions remain fragile, with another tanker reportedly attacked near Oman" overnight, MUFG's Soojin Kim writes. However, some solace was provided by signs that producers are continuing to export through Hormuz despite the elevated risk, the analyst notes. (josephmichael.stonor@wsj.com)

0722 GMT - European stock indexes are mixed at the open as U.S.-Iran escalation drags on travel stocks and energy-intensive industrials. AI-related stocks gain, however, as Europe-wide Stoxx 600 is flat. London's FTSE 100 falls 0.4%, dragged by a 2.9% drop for defense group Rolls-Royce while metals miners also slide. InterContinental Hotels Group is down 3.6%. The German DAX is 0.4% lower. Software giant SAP drops 2.7%, while Rheinmetall falls 2.3%. France's CAC 40 is in the green, rising 0.2%. Industrial gas group Air Liquide jumps 3.6% after activist investor Elliott Management built a stake in the company, according to an FT report. Italy's FTSE MIB is flat, while the Spanish IBEX 35 slips 0.2%. The semiconductor-heavy AEX adds 3%, boosted by a 1% gain for ASML.(josephmichael.stonor@wsj.com)

0642 GMT - Thai Oil stands to benefit from a tightened refinery market resulting from the Middle East and Russia-Ukraine conflicts, ttb wealth securities' Yupapan Polpornprasert says in a research report. Hence, the brokerage lifts its gross refining margin assumptions for the oil refinery by US$7.20 for 2026, US$1.30 for 2027, and US$1.10 for 2028. Also, the company's heavy capital-expenditure cycle from its clean fuel project is coming to an end, says the brokerage, which expects Thai Oil's free cash flow to turn positive from 2027. The brokerage raises the stock's target price to 75.00 baht from 60.00 baht with unchanged buy rating. Shares are 1.6% higher at 65.00 baht. (ronnie.harui@wsj.com)

0631 GMT - The U.S. dollar rises on the prospect of the Federal Reserve raising interest rates, potentially as early as this month. Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh last week warned of concerns about high inflation, causing investors to increase their bets on a September rate hike. U.S. money markets price a 65% possibility of a rate increase on Sept. 16, LSEG data show. Additionally, a flare-up in hostilities in the Middle East causes oil prices to rise further and boosts investors' appetite for the dollar as a safe haven. The DXY dollar index rises 0.1% at 99.518. (emese.bartha@wsj.com)

0530 GMT - China Resources Power is likely to face headwinds from tight coal supply, say DBS Group Research analysts in a note. Coal supply in 1H tightened with prices trending higher amid geopolitical uncertainty, they note. Domestic mine incidents also triggered stricter inspections and constrained local coal output, they add. The analysts expect coal-fired assets to transition toward flexible-adjustment resources, as capacity payments and ancillary services diversify revenue streams and enhance CR Power's long-term operational resilience. However, they flag that near-term earnings would remain weak due to coal cost pressure and lower power prices. DBS maintains its hold rating and target price of 19.20 Hong Kong dollars. Shares are down 1.5% at HK$18.48.

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