A cornerstone of Paramount Chief Executive David Ellison's argument that his planned Warner Bros. Discovery acquisition will benefit Hollywood is his promise to release at least 30 movies annually in theaters postmerger.

Many in the movie business are skeptical.

Opponents of the deal, which a coalition of 12 states have sued to block on antitrust grounds, and even some supporters note that Ellison's plan would defy a decadeslong trend of shrinking studio film slates.

The last time an entertainment company released 30 movies nationwide in theaters in one year was Warner Bros. parent Time Warner in 2007, according to data from Rentrak. Since the turn of the century, the average for major studios this century has been about 15 wide releases annually.

"In my opinion, this is a cynical effort to appease theater owners," Jason Squire, host of "The Movie Business Podcast" and professor emeritus at the University of Southern California's School of Cinematic Arts. "In these days of bloated budgets and competition with streaming, it's dicey."

Ellison, who took over Paramount last summer and quickly launched a bid for Warner, has been vehement about his intention.

"I wanted to look every single one of you in the eye and give you my word once we combine with Warner Bros., we are going to make a minimum of 30 films annually across both studios," he told theater owners at the CinemaCon convention in April. The CEO said theatrical releases are the best way to launch and grow long-lasting franchises.

Paramount and Warner will release a combined 28 films nationwide this year, if current plans hold, including June's "Scary Movie" and "Dune: Part Three," slated for later this year. They have 36 scheduled for 2027 including sequels to "A Quiet Place" and "Superman." The question many in Hollywood are asking is if they will continue that level of output when Ellison has to pay down nearly $80 billion of debt following the merger.

Despite plans to find $6 billion in savings, Paramount has said it won't cut content spending.

A spokeswoman said the studio has written agreements with theater operators promising to release at least 30 films annually. The agreements last three years, a person familiar with the matter said.

A quarter-century ago, the 30 movie pledge wouldn't have raised eyebrows. Bountiful DVD sales meant most films were profitable, even if they weren't box office blockbusters. More releases equaled more money. Today the DVD market is nearly dead and streaming profits are significantly smaller.

In addition, average movie budgets have ballooned as studios try to differentiate them from high-quality streaming shows and appeal to large foreign markets where audiences love spectacle. Production budgets of $200 million and even $300 million have become common, along with $100 million-plus marketing budgets, so Hollywood can't afford to make as many films.

Disney, which regularly released 30-plus films in the 1990s, released 16 last year.

"At the height of the insanity we were putting out a big number of movies, but there was less fatigue internally because they were all so different," said producer Todd Garner, who was a Disney executive in the 1990s. "Then the movies got more expensive and the home-video market collapsed."

Historically, when one studio is acquired by another, output shrinks. Twentieth Century Fox released 11 theatrical movies nationwide in 2018, the year before the studio was acquired by Disney. Now a Disney label called 20th Century Studios, it released five last year.

The Writers Guild of America, which has also sued in federal court to stop the merger, said in a statement earlier this year that entertainment companies always make promises including increased production when they want to merge. "And every time those promises are broken," the union said.

California Attorney General Rob Bonta, who is leading the states' antitrust litigation, said Tuesday that Paramount's 30-movie pledge wouldn't be an adequate remedy for what he sees as the merger's harms. Bonta called off planned settlement talks with Paramount that were scheduled for Aug. 24.

The three biggest theater chains in the U.S.-AMC, Regal and Cinemark-have all endorsed the Paramount-Warner combination. But Cinema United, an industry trade group whose membership also includes smaller theaters, has opposed it in part because studio consolidation typically results in fewer movies being made. The organization has also encouraged a settlement between Paramount and the plaintiff states, with guardrails to protect its members.

Some theater operators say they would prefer 20 films with high production values backed by robust marketing campaigns to 10 additional films just for the sake of it.