Asian and U.S. government bond yields rose Tuesday as higher crude-oil prices from renewed Middle East tensions fueled inflation fears and raised the prospect of tighter global monetary policy.
The yield on Japan's 10-year government bond touched 3.000%, its highest intraday level since September 1996, before trimming the rise to 2.985%, still up 4.5 basis points, according to data provider Quick.
The latest exchange of attacks between the U.S. and Iran prompted President Trump to say the U.S. would "hit them hard."
U.S. forces said they struck Iranian launch sites where rockets used to deploy naval mines in the Strait of Hormuz were being prepared for firing. Tehran retaliated by launching a salvo of missiles at Jordan, home to thousands of U.S. troops. All were intercepted.
"A resumption of kinetic U.S.-Iran conflict has lifted oil along with UST yields," said Vishnu Varathan, head of Macro Strategy for APAC at Mizuho Securities (Singapore), in an email. "Crucially, President Trump has warned that the U.S. will respond [to Iranian retaliation] setting up risks of antagonistic dynamics of escalation," Varathan added.
The yield on U.S. 10-year Treasurys rose 3 basis points to 4.7760%, near the Aug. 13 high of 4.7888%, FactSet data showed. Yields on Australia's 10-year sovereign securities advanced 9 basis points to 5.1620% and on New Zealand's 10-year government bonds gained 6 basis points to 4.8010%. Bond yields move inversely to prices.
Meanwhile, front-month West Texas Intermediate crude oil futures were 1.1% higher at $86.67 per barrel and front-month Brent crude oil futures were 0.8% higher at $91.20 a barrel, according to ICE data.
"With Brent oil prices still overall contained but inching up above the US$90/bbl, markets remain slightly unsure as to how the war in the Middle East will play out and the impact to" bond yields in Asia, said Michael Wan, senior currency analyst at MUFG Bank.
"Both the [overnight index swap] and Fed fund futures markets are now pricing in for around 70% probability of a September hike" by the Fed, Wan added.